Etiopien ut ur Somalia till jul?

Ursprungsartikel:
http://gudmundson.blogspot.com/2008/11/etiopien-ut-ur-somalia-till-jul.html


Hinner inte kolla nu om somalisk press innehåller något om detta, men Voice of America rapporterar att Etiopien ämnar dra sig ur Somalia i slutet av december, två år efter inmarschen.

Ethiopia has sent a letter to the United Nations and the African Union saying it will withdraw its forces from positions inside Somalia by the end of December. African and western diplomats confirmed to VOA the letter was delivered several days ago.

The pullout would come two years after Ethiopian troops invaded their lawless Horn of Africa neighbor to drive out Islamists who had imposed Sharia law on a large part of the country.

Since then, the Ethiopian contingent of between 10,000 and 15,000 troops has been the prime force propping up Somalia's fragile transitional government. They operate alongside a 3,400 strong AU peacekeeping unit known as AMISOM, made up of Ugandan and Burundian soldiers.

The letter to U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon and African Union Commission Chairman Jean Ping announcing the intent to withdraw was sent after Ethiopia's Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin publicly warned Somalia's feuding president and prime minister to patch up their differences or be left alone to fight among themselves.

Many African diplomats have openly expressed fears that an Ethiopian pullout could lead to an immediate collapse of the TFG, as the Somali government is known. But AU Commission Chairman Ping told reporters Wednesday he has received assurances from Ethiopia that they will not completely abandon Somalia, and will remain on the border, poised to return if conditions deteriorate.

"In spite of withdrawal of the Ethiopians, they will remain committed, just in the other side of the border, and they will intervene, and the African troops will remain there. The AMISOM will remain there and we'll continue to ask strengthening of AMISOM by asking new troops and also financial assistance," he said.

Ett uttåg skulle innebära att den svenska vänstern blir tvungen att uppfinna nya förklaringsmodeller för Shabaabs och de andra islamisternas våld. Men de kan ju alltid skylla på George Bush i ytterligare en månad efter det. Och sen finns ju alltid kolonialismen.

Min gissning är att Shabaab, efter etiopiernas uttåg, kommer att rikta våldet mot Afrikanska unionens av FN legitimerade styrkor, och naturligtvis mot alla andra utlänningar som törs vara kvar i landet. I andra sammanhang skulle det kallas att bedriva krig mot världssamfundet, och skapa etnisk rensning i det egna landet. Men jag sätter hundra kronor på att vänstern blundar för det.

För Somalia kommer sannolikt, gissar jag, en tid av islamistisk maktkonsolidering, innan klanstrukturen slår till, och de som inte tillhör klanen Hawiye tar upp vapnen mot de nya förtryckarna. Eller blir Somalia Barack Obamas första internationella insats?


Källa: Gudmundson (gästinlägg)